China FOMO Domination
9/30/2024
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The U.S. economy will face a test this week with a series of labor market data to be released, as investors look for signs of a soft landing but the theme of the market in the near-term might be all about China.
China Trade
there is an interesting dynamics playing out in RMB FX market, markets have been too strong on CNH whilst most recent CNY fixing was nearly 300 pips lower than CNH’s current market pricing.
with Chinese national teams not selling into the rally like how they used to do, make me wonder A-share and H-share/ADR are going to diverge in performance next few sessions simply due to FX impact and assumed all else equal.
more specially so, Shanghai and onshore markets overall will likely outferform offshore HK/ADR market. Below was Monday’s
and as Monday price action shows, HK underperformed Shanghai. Regardless, last week’s CSI 300 performance was epic to say the least.
Oil Trade
I have been bearish on oil for awhile as Saudi’s cuts in past years did not bring back bulls. $10 price swings in oil has not been tradable to me, and if Saudi is resolute about taking back market shares. They will likely floord the market with LOTS of production and $50 is not a far reach. There is only reasons to be bullish then.
Economic releases:
Monday: Powell Speaks 1:55PM; $79 billion 3M bills and $72 Billion 6M bills.
Tuesday: ISM PMI, Jolts, GDP Now; VP Debate: Vance vs Waltz
Wednesday: OPEC Meeting 6AM, ADP Nonfarm;
Thursday: Jobless claims; SP Global PMI; ISM non-manufacutring PMI;
Friday: Payrolls reports, Unemployment rates;
Charts I am watching:
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